What Is A Mathematical Methods For A Prosperous Football Bet?

July 21, 2020, by Toby Banks

Applying Mathematical Methods When Betting On Football

There has always been a debate over which mathematical methods is the best when making a football wager. Whether it was the first use of computers to make bets across the globe or statistical algorithms that make accurate predictions, punters always try to stay ahead of the curve when betting. All proficient punters use mathematics and statistics to their advantage based on their preference.

Best Mathematical Methods

Given why punters need to consider the various factors that go into a wager, it’s also essential to know how punters can also benefit from betting systems based on logic and math. Here are some of the best mathematical methods for a prosperous football bet:

The Good: Kelly Criterion

The Kelly Criterion is a scheme that works out the best bet size based on the value of a bet. Typically, this system still requires your capability to accurately evaluate the value and the possibility of an event occuring. However, this is also an excessive approach to understanding the amount to gamble to extract the maximum worth of a bet without considering the high-risk factor. There are two forms of the Kelly Criterion, namely the full and the fractional. The Kelly criterion full is more dangerous since it applies the full recommended amount while the latter or Kelly criterion fractional uses a fraction of the suggested amount.

a. Kelly Criterion Full

The Kelly criterion full principle enables a bettor to employ the criterion to determine the optimal percentage of bankroll a punter should use. In most cases, if a punter stakes his entire bankroll, then they may stand to lose their entire bankroll. Based on the maximum optimal percentage of bankroll a punter should bet, a punter can choose between different bets and stake different amounts in different percentages on various games.

b. Kelly Criterion Fractional

Taking a fractional method to this system permits a punter to gamble a percentage of the optimum gamble suggested by the Kelly formula. This approach is visibly more risk-averse. Plus, it helps defend a punter’s budget. However, it’s also important to note that with lesser risk factored in this method, that means the returns are lesser. The percentage of the optimal amount staked is totally up to the punter after factoring in protection in the form of variance for shock outcomes.

Value Betting

Value betting is a critical general approach when making a wager in any sport. Value bets can also be used as a hedge and is a key defense in any punter’s arsenal. In football gambling, nothing is definite. One must always account for variance. It is not uncommon to see your bankroll considerably shrink, despite employing effective mathematical and value betting principles. Do not get disheartened as you can counter this by employing bankroll management plus value betting strategy and know that the variance would even out over time.

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