Learn What Is Sure Bet And Its Betting Strategies

February 02, 2021, by Toby Banks

Learn Sure Bet And It's Betting Strategies

There are bets in which we will always win regardless of the outcome of the match. They are the so-called "sure bets." These bets are based on the existing differences in the betting odds given by the bookmakers. Sometimes these differences cause betting on every odd, and we end up winning no matter the match result. Here we’ll learn what a sure bet is and what are its betting strategies.

What Is A Sure Bet?

Also known as arbitrage, it involves betting on all possible outcomes of an event. Thus, whatever the result of the event, you will win. The requirement for a sure bet to exist is that the sum of each possible outcome's odds' probabilities must be less than 100% (negative spread). We'll illustrate the spread calculation this way:

Match: Arsenal - Everton

Odds and probabilities:

Arsenal: 2.1 (47.6%)
Everton: 4.2 (23.8%)
Draw: 5.0 (20.0%)

Let us remember that the probability is equal to the inverse of the odd (1/odd), and we have expressed it as a percentage. If we add the probabilities, we will obtain 91.4%, which is less than 100%. We have a sure bet! In this match, the bookmaker has not calculated the betting odds properly, and we will be able to win safely.

Betting Strategy With a Sure Bet

Now, we go to the critical point. We'll determine the stake on each possible outcome to ensure profits. To know how much we must bet on each event, we will apply the following formula:

Local team odd * Local team stake = Visitor team odd * Visitor team stake = Draw odd * Draw stake.

We will arbitrarily determine the stake of one of them. For example, we'll bet a stake of $10 on Arsenal's victory. Then, doing the math operations, we will obtain the stakes to bet in the other cases.

Draw Stake = (Arsenal Stake * Arsenal Odd) / Draw Odd = Draw Stake = (10 * 2.1) / 5.0 = $ 4.2
Everton Stake = (Arsenal Stake * Arsenal Odd) / Everton Odd = Everton Stake = (10 * 2.1) / 4.2 = $ 5.0

In resume, we have the following:

Arsenal Stake = $ 10
Draw Stake = $ 4.2
Everton Stake = $ 5.0

Therefore, our total investment will be 10 + 4.2 + 5.0 = $ 19.2

If Arsenal wins, we would get: (10 * 2.1) - 19.2 = $ 1.8
If there were a draw, we would get: (4.2 * 5.0) - 19.2 = $ 1.8
If Everton wins, we would get: (5.0 * 4.2) - 19.2 = $ 1.8

The results will not necessarily be equal. As we see, we would always win, regardless of the outcome. This profit may seem small; however, if we can use this method in several matches or combine them with other forecasts, the gains could be considerable. Certain circumstances can void a safe bet. The bookmaker can block the bet, the betting odds can change before we place our wager, so it won't longer be a sure bet, or the game can be suspended. Sure, sports bets are possible at any bookmaker. However, not all bookmakers offer the same betting odds for the same event. Therefore, to implement this strategy, you must be registered with more than one bookmaker.

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