Arbitrage Betting vs Value Betting

August 19, 2021, by Toby Banks

Arbitrage Betting And Value Betting

Beating a bookie, in the long run, is a difficult task. However, there is a minority of bettors who make money on a sustained basis. How is this possible? You also can get it through some methods that usually professional bettors successfully use. Next, we will talk about a pair of them: value bets and arbitrage betting.

Value Betting

Does the implicit probability of the bookie's odds is less than the occurring probability estimated by you? Then, you have a value bet. Suppose a match between Arsenal and Everton in which the odds for Arsenal's victory are 2.0. This means that the bookie assigns this possible outcome a 50% probability. So, it only makes sense to bet if we estimate that the Gunners winning probability is greater than 50%. This is not a common situation. However, it can happen when the bookmaker is forced to move the odds outside of the statistics. If bettors put a lot of money on certain possible outcomes, the bookie will adjust the complementary outcomes' odds to make them more attractive to other bettors. Thus, they balance their risk and guarantee their long-term profit.

Arbitrage Betting

The term "arbitrage betting" is used when you can obtain a profit from two or more markets that are out of balance with each other. In betting, it is possible to apply this concept. To do this, we must find a match where the implied probabilities' sum in the odds is less than 100%. That is, where the bookie's margin or commission is negative. No sportsbook will give us their margin. But maybe due to market dynamics, we can meet this condition by betting on each odds in different bookies. So, regardless of the result, you can obtain a profit. Let's continue with the previous example. One bookie may offer odds of 2.0 for the victory of Arsenal, and another offers 2.35 for the defeat or draw of this team. Note that the odds' probabilities handled are 50% and 43%, whose sum is lower than 100%.

Arbitrage Betting And Value Betting Comparison

You should be quick when you find the opportunity to place an arbitrage bet. Remember that bookies adjust their odds constantly, so you can lose the chance to secure profits if you do not move fast. Whereas, if you have a value bet, you will only bet once. So, this reduces the risk of mistakes.
To place arbitrage bets, a minimum of two or three accounts at different bookmakers is required. In value bets, it is enough that you are registered in one bookie.
The bankroll you need to make value bets is less than that required to make arbitrage bets. The reason is that you will not need multiple bookmakers. You won't have to place several bets at each opportunity, neither.

Bookmaker limits: All bookmakers have maximum betting limits for each event. Thus, we cannot always bet the amount we want when placing arbitrage bets. As we can see, arbitrage bets, also called sure bets, involve risks that ultimately lead them to not being so "safe."

In short, we can say that these betting methods seem simple. However, they are not easy to execute. Implementing them successfully requires effort and dedication.

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