Six Proven Mathematical Betting Strategies

Six Proven Mathematical Betting Strategies

Mathematical betting strategies are from mathematical, statistical, or analytical foundations or concepts. These are repeatable under similar circumstances and provide punters with a blueprint for success; punters can access raw data and make meaningful betting decisions and wagers based on past events, probability, correlation, and risk management.

Types Of Mathematical Betting Strategies

Some of the most famous mathematical betting strategies in sports betting include progressive betting (positive and negative), arbitrage wagers, value betting strategies, strategies based on essential metrics, cross league data, and studying the home-team advantage.

Progressive Betting Strategy

A progressive betting strategy establishes how a punter places a wager after a win or loss in a particular round. Under a positive, advanced betting strategy, punters must increase their stake after a win and decrease their stake after a loss (playing on streaks. Under a negative progressive betting strategy, punters must increase their stake after a loss and decrease their stake after a win (a risky strategy). Punters utilize variations of both methods for casino games, slot games, sports betting, Esports betting, and more.

Arbitrage Wagers

Arbitrage wagers are mathematical wagers that require punters to calculate the difference in prices of wagers to spot a profitable betting situation. Punters generally make a small but assured profit by making a wager with one provider and then laying a similar wager with another provider with differential odds. A punter's potential profit is the difference in odds between laying and making a wager. While arbitrage wagers are tough to spot, punters can stay on top of arbitrage bets by utilizing mathematical betting strategies.

Value Betting Strategies

Value betting strategies are betting strategies that seek to create value for a punter with a particular betting provider. Punters can profit from differently priced wagers by making a wager with a provider that gives the highest return for undertaking the lowest level of risk. For example, two betting services may price a 1x2 bet differently because of the number of wagers received on a particular outcome. A punter can consider which provider to place a chance with based on the respective returns of 1 (home team win), x (draw), and 2 (away team win).

Strategies Based On Metrics

Punters should make wagers based on betting strategies with roots in statistical analysis of important metrics. It's essential to map out important metrics and track how they change over time to spot excellent or valuable betting situations. Most punters are inefficient at monitoring more than ten bets, let alone tracking thousands of wagers on average in a week. Punters can utilize online statistical software such as R Studio or Python to analyze millions of minutes of football match data to make informed decisions.

Cross League Data

Punters can access cross league data for various games, teams, leagues, cups, tournaments, and competitions from official FIFA websites or league websites such as the Premier League. League and player data are easy to download in .xls or Excel depending on the number of years, teams, matches, the current season, or any other available data. Cross league data helps punters compare different leagues to help punters find the most profitable betting opportunities from thousands of possible wagers every week. Instead of manually scanning through each potential option, punters can search for specific metrics in the data (such as teams with average goals per game of 3.0) and place wagers on the most profitable options with the lowest level of risk.

Home Team Advantage

The home team advantage is fundamental in several sports where teams playing at home in a territory familiar to them tend to do better than teams playing away from home. Apart from the pitch, the home fans' voice also impacts how much effort either team puts out on matchday. For example, in the past 20 seasons of the English Premier League, teams playing at home tend to win their games more than 35% of the time, while teams playing away from home win less than 25% of the time. The home team advantage may be more significant in some leagues versus other leagues, and players can utilize such statistics to their betting advantage.