Strategies For Capitalizing On Bookmakers Early Betting Odds

December 19, 2023, by Toby Banks

Gaining An Edge Over Bookmakers: Mastering Early Betting Odds

Did you know that betting odds rarely remain constant from when it is first published to when the game starts? Here are some valuable tips on how to score huge profits from a sportsbook’s early odds.

Early Betting Odds vs. Closing Lines

The early bird catches the worm - this is a saying that’s especially true when dealing with betting odds. Early betting odds are the lines set some way before the actual game or sporting event starts - sometimes as early as months before. On the other hand, closing lines are the odds a punter can find just moments before the game. Setting betting prices far from the start of a sporting event is not ideal for most bookmakers. That’s because the bookies need to factor in lots of information to create logical odds (and profitable for the business enterprise), and this info is simply not available that early. However, they also need to capitalize on bettors who wish to place wagers ahead of schedule because those bets would be lost to more prudent sportsbooks.

Early Lines Offer Superb Value

In games like soccer and tennis, sharp punters know to place their bets early on. The betting prices published at such a time are much higher than closing lines and offer great value. Using soccer as an example, lines are put up as early as two weeks before. However, in basketball and baseball, punters have to be sharper and quicker to take advantage of early lines since most bookmakers set them up 24 hours or so before the game. At the end of the day, the difference between early odds and closing lines is night and day. Almost 100% of the time, lines start off very generous and profitable but plummet systematically as more and more punters place their wagers. By the time kickoff rolls around, a punter may stand to make less than half of the profit that early birds can haul in. The only downside to early betting is that some of the factors that are known to influence sporting outcomes may still need to be discovered at that point. For instance, in a team sport like soccer or NBA, an unforeseen injury can happen between when an early bet is placed and when the game is played. This may or may not impact the result and, hence, the success or failure of the bet. To counter this, a sharp punter may use a small stake to hedge the first bet to mitigate a potential loss.

Live Betting Beats Late Bets

Some punters swear by waiting till the last minute to put down their wagers. Their reasoning is based on the fact that since more information is available at closing time, the chances of making accurate predictions are better. The caveat, of course, is that it’s not just the punter who has this info, but the bookmaker, too! The odds available at closing time will reflect the bookie’s best estimation of the probability of each outcome occurring, resulting in much tighter lines. In this situation, live betting may be a much better option, offering the punter the chance to bag huge profits. Placing in-play wagers offers one more chance to catch the bookie sleeping. By being quicker to the bet button, a good punter may be able to spot a profitable prediction and capitalize before the lines are tightened. However, to have an accurate gauge of whether a live bet represents good value, the punter must know the pre-game odds that were available for that bet.

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