Finding Value Using Home and Away Stats

June 11, 2019, by Toby Banks

Finding Value Using Home and Away Statistics

One stat that I love to use is to look at the individual home and away records of teams who are playing each other. This information wasn’t available to punters years ago, but you can find these records on the internet in numerous different places. This season we have not yet had enough games to use the stats from this season, although to demonstrate how to use them we can take a look at the stats from last season.

Below is the final home and away tables from the Premier League last season.

The chart above shows the difference between form at home and form away from home. Take a look at the teams Burnley and Leicester in the list, look at where they are in the home table and compare that to where they are in the away form table. They both won over half of their home games, but struggled away from home, with Burnley winning one and Leicester winning two.

Last season if you had backed either Burnley or Leicester or both of them at home in every single Premier League game then you would have made a profit. Burnley especially was very profitable when playing at home, something, which the shrewd punters noticed.

The reason Burnley were so beneficial was that overall they are quite a poor Premier League team who struggled at the bottom of the league table. However, at home, they performed much better than that and regularly pulled out some good results. Burnley was priced up based on them being a struggling team, but performed much better than that, giving value every single time they played at home. To find this out, and search for more teams like this you need to go deep into the stats that are available and what you are looking for is a team performing much better at home than what they are perceived to be like overall.

An example of wrong value from last season would be Manchester United who struggled at home, despite finishing in the top six and being a big club. They only won eight out of 19 games at home meaning you would need to back them at around 6/4 in each game to be in profit. Manchester United are very rarely 6/4 to win at home, and often are odds on to win games which mean you would have lost a lot of money by backing Manchester United in every home game.

We have never had so many stats available to us for use when we are betting. Make sure you take advantage of this and use the stats to help you find value when you are placing your next bets. Just like Burnley and Leicester last season, we will have value teams this season, and once we have seen a few games take place, we should be able to find these teams and start backing them. Value is out there, and the stats available to us will help you find it.

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